Move over, Windows; Google and Apple are movin’ in

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	TOP STORY Move over, Windows; Google and Apple are movin’ in
	By Woody Leonhard With nearly infinite and virtually free cloud storage available, and with archrivals Google and Apple offering big ecosystems of apps and media, Microsoft seems to have the short end of the stick. Will Windows be able to compete in this brave new world? Or has it already been relegated to the technological bench — by consumers and, increasingly, companies?

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The full text of this column is posted at windowssecrets.com/top-story/move-over-windows-google-and-apple-are-movin-in/ (paid content, opens in a new window/tab).

Columnists typically cannot reply to comments here, but do incorporate the best tips into future columns.[/td]

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Although they are trying and, what they have done so far is good, they are not doing it fast enough or being “cool” enough and they need to get a move on. I fear as you do – if it doesn’t happen soon, they will remain irrelevant in the eyes of the general consumer. If Google were to bring out a fully fledged desktop operating system tomorrow, I think that would seal the fate of Windows with the general consumer – The majority of general users will move to Google by the end of the year.

It all seems to have gone downhill since Steve Sinofsky left the organisation.

Microsoft need to hire developers to create Apps, because no one else seems to be doing it. The quality of apps doesn’t really matter – if you can just say that “we have 1.5million apps”, that should do it. The public at the moment are quite shallow, and anyway, as if you will be able to fit 1.5 million apps on your device.

So, yes, I think your observations are spot on. I’ll continue to support them, though and hope that they will come thru.

All the best

Tim

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At the outset I’ll say I I know nothing about Apple products, but I do use Windows and Android OSs. And I’ve yet to find an Android app with the capabilities of, say, Photoshop. Or even an Android device powerful enough. For desktop publishing, graphic design, image and video editing and many more power-hungry programs, we still need Windows (and of course, Macs).

If, as my namesake points out, we get a proper Android desktop system, maybe that will change. However, MS and Apple have a long lead in that area. Such users of the above mentioned programs maybe a niche market, but still consumers.

As for the cloud, imagine even for those lucky to have fibre optic connection, trying, say, to upload a long video to be rendered.

So I don’t see Windows dying, but maybe contracting.

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At the outset I’ll say I I know nothing about Apple products, but I do use Windows and Android OSs. And I’ve yet to find an Android app with the capabilities of, say, Photoshop. Or even an Android device powerful enough. For desktop publishing, graphic design, image and video editing and many more power-hungry programs, we still need Windows (and of course, Macs).

If, as my namesake points out, we get a proper Android desktop system, maybe that will change. However, MS and Apple have a long lead in that area. Such users of the above mentioned programs maybe a niche market, but still consumers.

As for the cloud, imagine even for those lucky to have fibre optic connection, trying, say, to upload a long video to be rendered.

So I don’t see Windows dying, but maybe contracting.

There already is a desktop Android OS. It’s called Linux.

Linux doesn’t scale down to small tablets and phones very well, with the current desktop interfaces. But that could be changing.

Android definitely does not scale up to a true desktop, especially if touch is not an option. The same “blockiness” which plagues Windows 8 Metro would limit Android on the desktop. And many other details which do not scale up.

As for Windows’ strategy of one user experience on every device, everywhere — well, we have seen this concept, and it is a flop. Whoever tries to be everything to all people with one GUI will end up being nothing to anyone in any platform. A phone or small tablet simply must have a different GUI paradigm from a desktop or workstation platform. Nothing can change the physical ergonomics involved in this observation.

As for the applications themselves, I think Microsoft recognizes that you need smaller, less comprehensive Apps for smaller devices, and bigger, more all-encompassing applications for larger platforms. Apple seems to get this too, but in a different way. Android only does Small, and Linux does Bigger better than Smaller.

Apple may not agree, but Microsoft and Google seem to recognize that they need not only all sorts of devices in all sorts of sizes, but they need Apps and programs which can be used cross-platform, or at least with data compatibility through The Cloud. It’s called interoperability, and in business, this is tied with the BYOD paradigm. The days of being tied to a Company laptop or an at-work Workstation are going or gone in many organizations. Personal and portable devices are the bridge between work and home for most users.

As for Upstream Bandwidth, if the demand is there, the ISPs will build it out. Last I read, Fiber Optic connections in the US are under-utilized to the tune of 4/5 of their capacity not being used at the present time. This is from the Wall Street Journal, concerning a new boom in Fiber Optic Network construction recently:

But already some skeptics caution whether enough demand exists to warrant more building. While trading firms are currently willing to pay a premium for faster connections, some worry that potential new regulations governing high-frequency trading could crimp the market. Skeptics also question how large a mobile traffic surge will materialize given the high cost of delivering wireless data.

Clearly, there is plenty of capacity now and being planned, to vastly increase available Upstream Bandwidth, thus reducing the issue of time lag in transmitting large files through The Cloud.

So Microsoft needs to expand and improve their Store offerings, no doubt about it. Google Play needs to focus on more useful desktop applications. And Apple needs to come out of its walled-garden shell and socialize with the other operating environments. This includes making MacOS and iOS available for use as Virtual Machines under other OSes.

Anyway, that’s the way I respond to the issues raised in the article. Very interesting possibilities for one and all, if all companies have the foresight to roll with the changes. I think in spite of their inertia, Microsoft will in the end be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st Century.

Just my opinions.

-- rc primak

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I use Win8 on my desktop, smartphone wireless and take my iPad on trips. I enjoy the mix of different software on my devices. I think it makes the companies more competitive and interesting.

Microsoft knows it has to change and I think the last few years show they have tried (Win8 for example). I recently switched to Win8 and after a few weeks had it tweaked to include a lot of the Win7 features. Win9 should include the capability of using a Classic or the new Metro interface. Or, perhaps, include the capability of toggling each. I do miss my gadgets on Win8.

It’s difficult to imagine our digital future without MS in it. It could happen, but I believe they will continue to be a major player in our digital lives.

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Well on my email REIMAGE MOVED IN to tell me that I have 425 problems all on it’s own thanks to your latest newsletter. BUY NOW with NO X BOX either!

Google Chrome says: message contains content that’s typically used to steal personal information.

Is this your fault or was my email hacked?

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@n2alot: If you really need your gadgets, you can get them for Win8/Win8.1 here:

http://8gadgetpack.net/

But remember that they are potentially a significant security risk to your system (see comments elsewhere in the Lounge)

My Rig: AMD Ryzen 9 5900X 12-Core CPU; ASUS Cross Hair VIII Formula Mobo; Win 11 Pro (64 bit)-(UEFI-booted); 32GB RAM; 2TB Corsair Force Series MP600 Pro 2TB PCIe Gen 4.0 M.2 NVMe SSD. 1TB SAMSUNG 960 EVO M.2 NVME SSD; MSI GeForce RTX 3090 VENTUS 3X 24G OC; Microsoft 365 Home; Condusiv SSDKeeper Professional; Acronis Cyberprotect, VMWare Workstation Pro V17.5. HP 1TB USB SSD External Backup Drive). Dell G-Sync G3223Q 144Hz Monitor.

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Although they are trying and, what they have done so far is good, they are not doing it fast enough or being “cool” enough and they need to get a move on. I fear as you do – if it doesn’t happen soon, they will remain irrelevant in the eyes of the general consumer. If Google were to bring out a fully fledged desktop operating system tomorrow, I think that would seal the fate of Windows with the general consumer – The majority of general users will move to Google by the end of the year.

It all seems to have gone downhill since Steve Sinofsky left the organisation.

Microsoft need to hire developers to create Apps, because no one else seems to be doing it. The quality of apps doesn’t really matter – if you can just say that “we have 1.5million apps”, that should do it. The public at the moment are quite shallow, and anyway, as if you will be able to fit 1.5 million apps on your device.

So, yes, I think your observations are spot on. I’ll continue to support them, though and hope that they will come thru.

All the best

Tim

Agree up to a point, although I think MS started to foul things up big time when they started to charge for an upgrade to Win7 (Vista SP3 so they should NOT have asked us to fork out for this) from Vista (which I’m still using and I’ve only had 1 (yes one) bsod over 6 years – spare me the howls I’ve heard it all before).
Anyway, having worked in data processing/IT for 4 decades and now retired, my line up is as follows this notebook Vista SP2, Samsung Galaxy III smartphone, Linux Mint notebook & satellite TV PVR using Linux.
I use the Samsung more than the others but my view is that the quality of some of the apps is awful. One in particular which while free has other associated costs with it. I avoid Apple – too proprietary & expensive and from what I can see the apps are at about the same level as Android. Linux is OK & when I buy a new machine in the next year I may consider putting that on a shiny new fast bit of kit rather than the 10 year box it’s now on. I think the only thing stopping Linux going much further is the inertia of end users in businesses being reluctant to learn something new e.g. LibreOffice. I use this on Windows & Linux leaving casual viewing to the Samsung.
MS really have got to decide if the only area for the consumer is the XBox & stick with it’s corporate base for Windows – remember the people who gave us the IBM PC aren’t in it any more & very little of what we see today wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for that base layer of infrastructure, or at the very least would look a lot different. MS need to look after their corporates but if they really want to motor, they need a really big shake up & create a consumer based platform, maybe expand their use of Android & take on Google in the app space, but they need to do something & not sleepwalk into becoming another IBM like monolith that no longer shapes markets.

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Technically and functionally, Microsoft’s position in the cloud is much stronger than Apple’s or Google’s. Microsoft’s integration, from bottom (phone) to top (cloud) is simply unsurpassed. If Apple had anything close it would not need IBM.

This isn’t about Windows and Office. It’s about the size of Microsoft’s share of the phone market.

The Windows Phone integrates beautifully into the Microsoft world. It is a far better integration story than iPhone or Android. And that pays huge dividends when a business user switches from an iPhone to a Nokia Lumia and sees those benefits.

I think all Microsoft needs to do to secure its position is reach critical mass in the phone market. Microsoft has the deep pockets to make that happen.

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My computing includes much financial “stuff” that I wouldn’t want in the cloud. I want to keep it on my own SSD, encrypted, and with redundant backup. A cloud-only Chromebook is not an option. Plus, if you can’t connect to the cloud, how can you access ANY of your data? Even if we have a power loss, I can access my on-computer data by battery- and with my generator, if the power loss is prolonged.

When I bought my last laptop, I considered a MacBook, but I found a major problem in that Quicken for Mac doesn’t mix well with Quicken for Windows. I would have risked or lost decades of financial records, had I switched, or would have been forced to keep my old Windows computer just to keep access to those records- a classic garden wall problem.

I DO use an iPhone for access to e-mail when traveling locally, checking weather when biking, playing a few games, and I can sync my Outlook data to it through the dreaded iTunes. Anything else can wait until I get home, and with that usage pattern, who needs a tablet? If I’m doing “distance traveling”, I can take undock and take along my 3-pound Toshiba laptop, which I chose as it has all the capabilities, except a few less USB ports, as other laptops weighing 1-2 pounds more. I run my own business, so interoperability with the “boss’s” computer is tautological.

I actually WORK on my computer, and don’t just want to use it as an Internet social connection device. Even if I were to keep a “legacy” Windows computer & go to Apple, it would cost me at least twice as much to gain the same capability as I get with a computer running Windows. So why would I ever leave Windows? Google will have to build a true computer you can use without Internet access, and Apple would have to reduce prices markedly, before I’d ever consider such a move!

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My computing includes much financial “stuff” that I wouldn’t want in the cloud…I actually WORK on my computer, and don’t just want to use it as an Internet social connection device.

Bingo!

The descent of computers into consumerism and the complete and total focus of the industry on that sector appalls me. Even this article mentions the dire, grim future of Windows as “the operating system of corporate drones and the platform for aged software.” How foolish. I am not a corporate drone, but a small business owner and the “aged software” that I use allows me to keep GAAP legal books (not silly Quicken books) and to run my bricks-and-mortar quality Point of Sale software, etc. While it may be possible to buy similar applications for Linux (it was not possible the last time I looked, just a couple of years ago) I doubt that it will ever be possible to buy software that I would actually find usable for tablet operating systems. Not within my professional lifetime anyway.

People who are growing up now will probably adapt tablets or their successors to the tasks I use Windows computers for, but they will be kludgy tools for the job. It will be like the kids who own those little buzzy compact cars but who cannot haul a load of lumber or even the bed they sleep on. Sure, they can go rent a moving van for occasional use, but if they are going to haul stuff every day they are going to have to buy a truck. PCs are the light trucks of the computer world and there will be a need for them for the foreseeable future. But nothing is forever and we cannot imagine what we will be using farther into the future. The way things are going we will all someday work for giant corporations or be destitute and living under bridges. Who knows what the computing world will be like then. We’ll all probably have implants with Google or Apple programming our every purchase.

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“Apple’s approach is about a dumb cloud enabling rich apps while Google’s is about devices as dumb glass that are endpoints of cloud services.” I am not sure what this means. What is a “dumb cloud?” What is “dumb glass?”

But the article is very good for those of us “out of the loop.” In fact, it a superb article. Thanks!

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I’ve raised this before but the biggest issue I see with all of this is that more and more, you need a robust Internet connection to work. That may not be a big problem if you are home or at the office and have WiFi, but once you leave then you only have three options. Go somewhere that has WiFi, invest in expensive 4G equipment and data plans, or don’t work.

The cost of this new paradigm has not yet been felt. In 5 more years, as more and more business become dependent on cloud based services, the cost of bandwidth is going to go through the roof.

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Without getting into a defense of Windows, I believe that any article predicting the demise of Windows as the dominant computing platform, both personal and professional for years to come, is grossly over-simplifying the situation. As you point out in your article, all three platforms (Microsoft, Google, and Apple) have built “walled gardens around their products”. While Android and iOS devices are now more accepted in the workplace, their presence is nothing close to dominant.

I own an iPad (1st gen), but every time I use it, I wish it were a Windows tablet! The only thing I use it for is taking it on the road for surfing the web and for reading e-books when I don’t need the power of Windows. I own three Windows devices – a desktop, a large tablet when I’m going to be at a client site for more than 1 day, and a 14” hybrid for other road trips. Would any Android device be as convenient and powerful? No.

I’ve written two books about Windows 8 and Windows 8 apps, and I certainly believe that Microsoft missed the boat with this one. However, they have the resources, and time is still on their side.

I’d be interested in knowing what others think about your assertion that “most users are now comfortable using different platforms for personal and work applications.” Aside from email and Web browsing, exactly what applications are you talking about?

For those of you who disagree with me – a challenge! Spend at least a day, or better yet, one week – without using a Windows device, and tell me how productive you are. While Android and iOS devices give us wonderful short-term alternatives to Windows, for longer periods of time, they still don’t compare.

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This article is nothing more than a rewrite of what the naysayers have been spewing for a long time, just to get reader’s eyeballs. WS disappoints again.

The fact is that MS is still dominants overwhelmingly in the global business community with is well documented ~ 95% market share in the productivity software market, 75% share in the operating system market and approximately 75% share in the server software market.

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I wouldn’t be too quick count out the future of Windows

As long as Microsoft can control the corporate desktop market, most home users will want to ‘use what I use at work’ and will get a Windows machine.

Running Office on a phone or tablet may seem nice for viewing documents and tweaking content, but for doing serious content creation, nothing beats a large screen and full-size keyboard.

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As #5 says, Linux needs to be considered.

It suffers from not having a single promoter (MS, Apple, Google etc.) and a variety of versions that can be confusing, but:
– It is robust and used by many employers on their servers
– Installation is no more difficult than installing Windows
– It has an ecosystem of applications
– Maintenance is as easy as Windows
– And purchase cost of the OS and the applications is £0

When will a major hardware supplier start shipping PCs with a mainstream Linux distribution? Netbooks aside (remember them?) it’s not happened and the distribution shipped with many was cut-down (sort of Linux RT).

My old netbook is now very happily running full Ubuntu 14.04. And I have Lubuntu really running on my old XP machine. Then on Virtual Box ( http://www.virtualbox.org running under Windows) I have played with numerous other varieties and desktops ( http://virtualboxes.org/images/ ) and Lubuntu may even bring my old Windows 98 machine back from the dead.

The lack of a single promoter means that getting into Linux seems a bit daunting. However, with a lot of old XP hardware around a lot of people have suitable hardware with which to experiment. Much of the variety is for Geeks, so just find a mainstream distribution that suits.

So download a distribution and experiment:

– any *ubuntu ( http://www.ubuntu.com/desktop , http://lubuntu.net/ , http://www.kubuntu.org/ , https://www.edubuntu.org/ )
Version 14.04 LTS is deemed a “long term support version” to be supported for at least two years – when there will be an easy upgrade to the next LTS version. My netbook started on 10.04 LTS, moved to 12.04 LTS and is now on 14.04 (the 14 refers to 2014 and the .04 refers to April)

– or try any Mint ( http://www.linuxmint.com/download.php – any of Cinnamon/MATE/KDE/xcfe – which are varieties of desktop)
Version 17 is the current LTS version.

All should run on XP compatible hardware – to most the main difference is cosmetic differences on how the “Start menu” equivalent etc. works. Personal recommendation from all this variety? Lubuntu – which should feel familiar to Windows Users.

If frightened by the download buy a linux magazine with a “Live CD” on the cover! (‘struth you may end up paying £5!)

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As #5 says, Linux needs to be considered.
– It has an ecosystem of applications

I spent a lot of time in 2012 trying to find a useable GAAP-compatible bookkeeping application and a bricks-and-mortar quality Point of Sale application for Linux and met with complete failure on both. I think if I wanted to spend on the order of 10x what my current products cost and more on an application engineer to make them actually work, then I could have done it, but it wasn’t worth it. Most Linux applications are written by hobbyists in their spare time. They have big feature lists, but usually lack the basic understanding of how real workers actually use the software and so they just aren’t very usable. They are often gimmicky and inelegant. The amount of work and cost and training that it would take to convert our POS system to any other package – Windows, Linux or otherwise – is immense and that’s if the new system actually works well. To switch to the quality of software I was able to find in 2012 would be totally unacceptable. And I doubt that much has improved in just a year and a half.

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A lot of this article focuses on the cloud in the context of apps and the individual user experience. In that sense, it does explain why Microsoft views the cloud as a Windows appendage (OneDrive, Windows Store). The Windows OS has to be all things to all people and Microsoft’s version of Cloud implementation for that is fairly “day-to-day” in nature. But when it comes to business, the game changes. The way you could use Azure for SharePoint, for Visual Studio and/or Team Foundation Server, or simply for content hosting, is extremely robust–the fact that I hate using the word ‘robust’ should emphasize the point–it’s laid out for businesses as a stepping-stone to take as far into the Cloud as they are willing…and Microsoft deserves credit for trying to make this affordable to smaller businesses too.

And yet, we have Office 365 sitting somewhere in between, because it has to have a foot in both worlds. And as a result, it’s probably the best place to look if you want to see where Microsoft intends to go with Cloud implementation of apps: it is a fairly big suite of apps, their most heavily consumed product outside Windows, and I get the impression it hits all of the rough spots of Cloud implementation for Microsoft.

Personally, I keep waiting for OneDrive to get easier to work with–and yet both it and the Windows Store apps are just as the author describes them–not well written to the user’s experience.

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Ain’t gonna happen, Woody. Business runs on Windows platforms, and will for a long time. The notion that Linux will replace Windows in the business world is preposterous. And expecting Fortune 500 companies to align themselves with overpriced Apple products or half-baked, intrusive Google products is pure fantasy. It may be a really hot idea for technoids and pimple-faced gamers to argue forever, but that’s not the business world. I have yet to see anybody prepare a 100 page business report, a new drug application or an SEC filing in a business setting using an iPad, and we’re very unlikely to see it happen, primarily because an iPad is poorly suited for that kind of task.

I only hope Microsoft does a better job with Windows 9 than they did with Windows 8. They sure screwed the pooch with Windows 8.

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After reading your article about Microsoft becoming irrelevant, I agree with the crux of your article. I also read many of the comments posted so far and none touch on the one thought I had during my read. A new market was born and inarguably filled the hole between hose who could run Windows apps and those who could not. The percentage of consumers wanted something “easier” to use for email, messaging, games, etc. and phones were becoming available to fill those needs. At that point, a niche market emerged and now the market has gobbled up a big piece of what could have been Microsoft’s market share. Now, even diehard Windows users want to experience the simpler technology. Unless Microsoft successfully markets their own devices that meet or beat the emerging competition, they will be constrained to an ever shrinking market of “smart” consumers who like more options than the “easier” market provides.

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Now, even diehard Windows users want to experience the simpler technology.

I don’t think so. Remember the howling outrage over Windows 8? It’s the simple “consumers” who want simpler technology. The diehards want more power. I just built my first computer since 1993 (when I used to built huge corporate computers) so I could get power and so I would have control over my own future. Someone will always be supplying parts – at least within my lifetime. Full sized PCs may become more and more of a niche market, but I think they’ll be around for a while yet. If Windows quits supplying an OS for them we will have to convert to Linux. I cannot find decent applications for my bookkeeping and POS needs in the Linux world, but if Windows abandons the PC market, then they will appear. I’ve already talked to my POS supplier and they are studying the possibility of a Linux version.

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After reading your article about Microsoft becoming irrelevant, I agree with the crux of your article. I also read many of the comments posted so far and none touch on the one thought I had during my read. A new market was born and inarguably filled the hole between hose who could run Windows apps and those who could not. The percentage of consumers wanted something “easier” to use for email, messaging, games, etc. and phones were becoming available to fill those needs. At that point, a niche market emerged and now the market has gobbled up a big piece of what could have been Microsoft’s market share. Now, even diehard Windows users want to experience the simpler technology. Unless Microsoft successfully markets their own devices that meet or beat the emerging competition, they will be constrained to an ever shrinking market of “smart” consumers who like more options than the “easier” market provides.

Indeed, the vast majority of users will never compose a 100 page report or render video or manipulate images. Looking at Word, for instance, the majority of Word users cannot even understand many of the capabilities that the platform provides; worse, many just are confused by all the options.

The article expresses Moore’s law in spades. A mobile phone now has capabilities not even possible on the XT machines of the 1980’s. My wife remains confused about all the things her phone can do. So many ordinary folk are using phones and tablets to do things related to simple communications and games. And those users need little else for their tasks. The existence of millions of ‘apps’ only manages to confuse the majority of users.

Microsoft’s efforts in the cloud are improving but they need to worry about their professional users trust. We know that Google intends to mine any information for it’s progression as the world’s top ad placement agent. And who can guess if Apple can survive into the future.

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I knew this long ago. Started to use APPLE for first time since 1983 in Nov of 2012. Please keep up with APPLE and Google we need all the information.
Great article, and yes I think if Microsoft does not get the message, you need to send this to the new CEO it is a must read. Microsoft needs to know, I use Apple for Business and Personal, and phone and IPAD. They Microsfot had me for nearly 30 years and I made the switch, just could not stand all the issues. Now everyone has a good reason to change, and maybe some BIG companies will get the message. Apple is doing a deal with IBM, watch out Microsoft.

Bill

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This discussion brings me back to the 1980’s when we debated clones vrs “real” PC’s, Token ring vrs Ethernet, Microsoft pairing with IBM on OS-2, microchannel architecture, and “Nobody was ever fired for buying IBM”.

Made IBM what it is today — a [profitable] boutique supplier to big business.

…/Glitch

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MS Office has some serious challengers with the various flavors of “open” office applications. I don’t use MS Office at home anymore, I’ve been using an “open” version for years. And I hate the ribbon.

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The More Things Change …….

Woody recently commented on the changes to the computer world brought about by companies such as Google, Apple and others using devices powered by Android, IOS etal. His comments were centered around Microsoft and its ability to cope with the apparent power shift in the application market. Being a computer industry dinosaur, I have had the dubious privilege seeing the shift of fortunes in the industry since the mid 60s to now.

Back “in the day”, the computer industry was driven by the hardware. Applications were developed to suit the platform. The machines were huge, power hungry and very expensive. I worked for Control Data Corporation. They built the most powerful computers in the world that were bought and used by the government and academic scientific institutions. IBM built large computers for business use. Other companies such as Univac and Honeywell competed for the business. In the late 1970s something happened that within a very short time sent most of the major players in the business to the dumpster. IBM did something very uncharacteristic for them. They introduced the personal computer over which they had little control. They built the hardware, a fledgling company calling itself Microsoft provided the operating system and the applications were left to programmers at large to develop. Very few of us saw the handwriting on the wall.

The rise of the internet, the development of UNIX, the explosion of applications for the personal computer, the advances in microcomputer technology and associated components changed everything. Computing was much cheaper. Hardware no longer ruled. Software was the new game. This drove many of the major computer industry players into bankruptcy. Control Data, a worldwide company with 36,000 employees was taken apart from about 1986 to 1992. In 1986 I was part of a small group of 13 people that developed “third party” peripheral equipment for the IBM Series-1 computer primarily used as a collection and distribution point for point of sale terminals. Our group was sold to Cambex Corporation. Even DEC, a manufacturer of UNIX based computers could not survive

So, here we are nearly 30 years later. I am retired but still love watching the ‘game”. Microsoft has had it their way all these years. I see them possibly facing the same fate as they were partly (or wholly) responsible for so many years ago. The sheer bulk of the corporation may be the undoing. Big corporations don’t seem to see what they don’t want to see. If they are slow to respond, they may begin to thrash. The new sheriff in town may be able to fix things but cultures are hard to change. Stay tuned.

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I see a couple thoughts on your analysis and presentation.

First is you seem to lead the reader to believe with those sales figures for apps at Apple and Google that Microsoft has no sales at all which totally ignores the sales for Office 365 that completely dwarf the “stupid cat picture” apps that get sold to Android and Apple (and Windows) phone users to create those numbers. Not many of these are sustainable income sources. Good apps have a hard time making it on any of those platforms because the market seems to be for “short time consumable” applications. Look at your own phone, how many of the apps you have loaded are purchased and how many do you use more than once a week after 30 days. On the other hand O365/OneDrive/etc will have customers returning based on a value proposition. It will be interesting to see if that becomes a “churn” business like TV cable is now.

I was surprised you passed on the CURIOUS choice of words in the Nadella quote:
” I’m going to say… any thinking consumer should consider Microsoft because guess what, you’re not just a consumer.” In my opinion this is troublesome mostly because thinking consumers is a really small part of the devices market and Microsoft may already have a large part of them. Most people do not buy phones or any consumer computing device after going thru a deep thoughtful purchase decision. More often than not it seems the decision is based on emotional appeal and marketing ‘cool’. Those kinds of thinking decisions rarely seem to happen out side the enterprise.

Finally from where I sit it seems like Windows may have to move over some but more importantly I think it will also move forward. I don’t believe the Windows market has shrunk as much as is commonly assumed and now MS is moving to new markets with the Windows brand where it does not have a dominant position. They never really got to the vision of a PC in every home and now they are adding a device in every hand buying Microsoft services. That is the point, Windows no longer is the Windows of version 3.11 we cut our teeth on. It too is more of a brand than a single OS/user interface these days. I find my self wondering if there will be a product/solution in the future, like Windows was then, that will bring sanity to the chaos of computing on the web… you remember… we had a different printer driver for every app, a different set of CRTL keys to learn for every app, nothing worked together well, data transfers were difficult (lotus to dbase and back or word to displaywrite) Fast forward 30 years and the problems have all been re-invented – its like the days of DOS, OS/2, UNIX, WordPerfect, DBase, and Lotus only now it is the WWW and not SNEAKER NET. Microsoft moved into that PC world with Windows and became the dominant player, is Nadella trying to do the same on a new platform called the internet?

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For me, a keyboard / mouse / monitor will always be essential. It is a lot easier to do all of the tasks I do on a full-size keyboard than on a touchscreen virtual keyboard.

What would work for me would be a tablet device which had USB and video ports, so that I could plug it in and make it like a desktop computer while at my desk, and then unplug it and carry it with me when I am away.

There is no way I would want to do Facebook, email, or other daily activities on a small touchscreen and a touchscreen virtual keyboard. People are being sold a bill of goods when they are told that they MUST depend on the tiny virtual keyboard and tiny smartphone monitor.

Group "L" (Linux Mint)
with Windows 10 running in a remote session on my file server

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Hi Woody:

Your recent article regarding the future of Microsoft vis Google and Apple brings up an interesting question that doesn’t seem to be discussed much. This is the question of how will these nifty apps that run on tablets and smart phones be created. What most people need are not “personal computers” but “personal communicators”. When PC’s (personal computers; e.g. the IBM PC, Apple Mac) came out and were soon adopted en mass by many people, there were no alternatives. These PC’s were used mostly for e-mail, photo and music sharing, etc. Few people used them to “compute”. In those early days of the PC, real computing was being done on mainframes, scientific workstations (remember Sun, Silicon Graphics, Apollo, even the old HP?), or supercomputers (Cray). Even some applications for PC’s were developed on workstations.

As PC’s became more and more powerful, however, it became clear that most of the work done on expensive workstations could be done on cheap (due to mass sales to a wide customer base) PC’s. So went Sun, Silicon Graphics, etc.

Then came the iPod, iPhone, iPad, and their equivalents. Nobody needs big, bulky PC’s to do e-mail or share photos and music any more. Thus the recent decline in PC sales and the fortunes of Microsoft. But the question is what will be the hardware/software environment for creating the nifty apps that run on these personal communicators. Will we be back to the old days of expensive (because of the limited market size) workstations? Who will make them? Apple certainly seems to be easing itself out of that market. Their latest Mac Pro is likely to be their last. HP is struggling; so, it seems, is Dell. Who will put a “PC”/workstation on my desk five years from now, and for how much?

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Great article. I have been Windows user since 3.1 and a Windows hater since Windows 95. 95 was such a complete POS. By the time 98 came out I figured Microsoft owed me several thousand hours of lost time between the blue screen of death, and seeing ‘you have installed windows for the very first time’ for the zillionth time :-). When I heard that XP was going to be limited to one install per PC and maybe even limited upgrades to the PC it had been put on, I turned to Linux for my home PC. However, it was always necessary to keep a copy of Windows so I could dual boot in order to use proprietary software only available in Windows, and of course, I was stuck with whatever the IT department at work mandated for my work desktop.
I tried a Mac at home for a while, and found it no better than Windows for other reasons, I had my Mac when Apple was concentrating on developing their I pods and I phones, and it seemed that nobody cared about Mac software anymore, or just assumed that because you had a Mac you loved paying silly prices and doing everything Steve’s way.
The thing that never ceased to amaze me was how Microsoft always gets it wrong, they were behind the curve on the internet, network security, mobile devices and phones, and yet they still dominate the business world, mostly because IT departments who can’t even bother to learn the latest version of Windows let alone a new system.
When corporate finally moves everything into the cloud, along with browser – cloud based apps such as Google Office, the next thing that will happen is that employees will be ‘allowed’ to bring their own PCs to work, which will soon devolve into will be required to, much the way businesses are allowing/requiring employees to supply their own cell phones, which immediately resulted in the switch from Blackberrys to Iphones. A clever manufacturer who paid attention to the cell phone wars will develop the ‘cool’ but business capable user friendly office PC for the worker paying for it, and Windows will go the way of the wind up phonograph.

So long Windows, and the never ending updates (you couldn’t get right the first time?), the mandatory re-boots, the click everything three times, including ‘are you sure?’, and finding there is yet another must click box hidden away somewhere, good bye scammers and malware, false alarms for legitimate stuff with an expired ‘certificate’, Microsoft DRM gestapo, etc., I won’t miss you when you are finally gone .

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I read no mention of Linux. I understand Ubuntu is aiming at the tablet/phone with a phone being able to dock and become a full strength operating system. I’m looking forward to that idea. I just hope they hurry as I’m already 75.

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Tablets/phones can have the same computing power as my old XP machine did. If Ubuntu is first out with a device that easily docks to screen/keyboard/mouse (something that doesn’t need any particular operating system), they will get a jump on everyone else who should have realized what the revolt over Windows 8 was all about. It wasn’t about resistance to advancement, it was about loss of productivity instead of a gain, it was about a technical solution to a problem that didn’t exist, something forced on users that wasn’t useful.

Things make sense where they make sense, and nowhere else. Touch screens have their uses, where nothing else will do, and it’s not on the desktop. There is no increase in productivity to be gained from it, and then there is the fingerprint issue.

When it comes to the direction of computer tech, it’s like the music business: I am not the consumer they have in mind. Maybe I am a curmudgeon.

My private and business data is not going to be stored in ‘the cloud’. Unless I put it there, encrypted. Otherwise my terabyte-size drives will hold primary and backup data.

My multi-core multi-GHz multi-GB machine is not a dumb terminal and I will not use it as one for office applications, or any other application. What are they thinking?

My office applications will not default to storing files across any network, and will be actively prevented from doing so unless there is a reason for it.

I won’t type onto a touchscreen, particularly a ridiculously tiny one, unless I have no other option.

Email access on a phone or tablet is fine — for reading. Web on a small screen is torture for old curmudgeon eyes.

I need to be able to run legacy Windows applications. Right now, XP runs inside VMWare, either on Win 7 or Linux. That way I can lock XP away from the internet. I prefer Linux for security reasons. Security through obscurity is not a security approach, but it helps.

I haven’t seen one word about security. Windows is a lost cause for security, Android is even worse. Linux is great for getting a false sense of security. The opportunities for exploits start in the hardware, in the design approach for firmware, and spin out of control from bad to worse from there. I will be an early adopter if ever some thought is given to security at the hardware level and basing a kernel on that. UEFI made the problem worse, not better.

I won’t insult Apple products, I support a few machines and find them about the same as Linux machines to support, but I’m not an expert because I won’t pay the premium to get locked out of all my special software.

Whatever happens to Windows, they won’t be making their products with me in mind anyway. But I expect to be able to keep supplementing my income undoing their UI changes, removing annoyances, blocking useless functionality, patching, firewalling, monitoring, and otherwise restoring the functionality people need that was there in Windows 98 and making it as easy to get at as it was in Windows 98. Not that there haven’t been improvements since then, but … nothing much to improve productivity.

Since I’m on a rant, I might as well state that I am still running some applications that actually ran in Windows 98. Trying to find replacements, one runs into a wall of websites with “Enterprise”, “Paradigm”, “Cloud”, “Extensible” and other such noise blinking away in Flash and Silverlight, with multi-thousand dollar price tags or monthly rent. No way. Not to do the simple tasks I need it for.

Thanks for letting me unload.

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I started using “home computers” back in 1979 with my Atari 800… at that time there were multiple platforms that did not talk to each other at all… It took several years for all the different providers to die out and leave the two survivors to battle each other… I have seen that same battle in many technology arenas over the year and see the latest battle as a part of the process that has been going on for many years… It’s just going to come down to who can provide the best match with what companies and consumers need the most at this time.

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Heading of Woody’s article is “Move over, Windows; Google and Apple are movin’ in“, yet I am slightly confused as to which computing platform he is addressing: Is Woody talking about the PC (desktop/laptop) market or is he saying that that Google/Apple are “movin’ in” to the mobile (phone/tablet) market. The two markets (IMHO) are distinctly different, although they may be overlapping at some points. If the argument is the ongoing slip of the PC industry market-share; there is no argument there, as it has been in the news for quite many years. But the PC computing market is still Windows-centric. If Woody is talking about the “mobile” market, then it is not really a “move over” and/or “movin’ in” issue since Windows8Phones never had dominance to start with.

There are no “tars and feathers” in my post but it takes Woody 7 paragraphs before deciding to put his opinions in an explanatory framework that normally should belong in the first paragraph. It maybe that computing will advance to the point where everyone is using teeny-weeny little virtual keyboards and under 10″ touch displays. Unfortunately, there will need to be another paradigm shift where HMI is via voice control or similar to what Google Glass is attempting to achieve. And when that type of computing truly arrives and Microsoft is not in the game; I am not certain if anyone will be reading or typing such long articles like Woody’s or such rebuttals like mine!

I am already aware that Woody has ground his axe to a razor sharp edge about his distaste for Windows8, for whatever reasons that he has. But this new article smells of a character assassination attempt of Windows, which probably pays some of his wages unless he writes for WindowsSecrets as a charitable endeavor. Who was the other Windows evangelist that decided to abandon ship and move to the Apple camp about 4 years ago? Ummmmmm!

But at the current time, it is not Apple or Microsoft that are doing the “movin” (In or Out) >> it is truly Google/Android that is in the spotlight; front and center. They have become the movers and the shakers in the ‘mobile’ industry! They are the 600pound gorilla in the market, at the current time. It is not Apple! Apple may be doing a swell job at ROI but they are for the higher income consumers that can afford the price of luxury! Apple’s eco-system entails both the hardware as well as the software side. So, their ROI is going to have issues, since these profits need to fuel future R&D that needs to be split between HW/SW. Whereas Google’s model is a leaner system that only worries about a singular mission; that of software (as does Microsoft’s business model). Unfortunately as history shows us, as such companies get bigger and bigger, they seem to lose their edge for innovation and other new companies truly “Move In”. Take a look at what Cyanogen is doing with their OnePlus One phone at half the price point of Samsung-S5 or HTC-OneM8 (or dare I mention Apple-5S?). But at the current time (and for the foreseeable future), the lead horse appears to be Google (and Android) and not Apple nor Windows.
If the gist of Woody’s article is another doom-and-gloom for Microsoft, then it may also truly be doom-and-gloom for WindowsSecrets newsletter as well!
Upon finishing his article, it sounded like Woody was again cutting the hand that feeds him. N’est-ce pas?

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I got rid of my iPad (sold it) recently after 2 years of non usage. I’m surprised it took me that long. (lazy)
With 30 bucks a month for Verizon access, it’s just not worth it. And you can’t really do anything with it other than play games,
surf the internet, and check email. I guess for many that’s the whole deal and that’s all they’ll need.
And that goes for all these portable devices, they get old too fast (bored). I guess one can only play with them so much.

[rant…
I don’t even own a smart phone, they’re stupid, and they make you look stupid, standing around fiddling with it as if one will die
if one can’t have something to properly occupy their attention.

For me, I need a computer, a real computer, a desktop computer, and that means a Windows computer with an OS that can run real programs…
and a monitor with real-estate, and real storage space to store everything.
Not cloud based crap where you don’t really have control, (where the NSA, or some other foreign intelligence agency might have your number)
nor some mickey mouse OS made for a tablet that runs anemic applications. interconnectivity [?] who cares, I don’t want/need applications talking to each other.
It all amount to less and less control.

Apple and Linux are the only real alternatives to desktops, but they’re a distant second at that, and they’ll remain that way for sometime to come.
You tell me what real work is getting done on a tablet or smartphone and I’ll reconsider.

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@CLiNT: Hear Hear!!!

My Rig: AMD Ryzen 9 5900X 12-Core CPU; ASUS Cross Hair VIII Formula Mobo; Win 11 Pro (64 bit)-(UEFI-booted); 32GB RAM; 2TB Corsair Force Series MP600 Pro 2TB PCIe Gen 4.0 M.2 NVMe SSD. 1TB SAMSUNG 960 EVO M.2 NVME SSD; MSI GeForce RTX 3090 VENTUS 3X 24G OC; Microsoft 365 Home; Condusiv SSDKeeper Professional; Acronis Cyberprotect, VMWare Workstation Pro V17.5. HP 1TB USB SSD External Backup Drive). Dell G-Sync G3223Q 144Hz Monitor.

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In my opinion all these makers will experience wins and losses.

Windows most certainly looks like it’s in deep trouble in the areas discussed. However so many truly major companies have failed in the past two decades, I don’t think it’s particularly unusual. I believe it will happen to both Google and Apple in the next 10-15 years. Consider such giants as Silicon Graphics, WordPerfect (still around, but virtually unimproved/dead), and other great names.

Apple experienced a renewal at the beginning of this century, but wasn’t it lucky that Microsoft bailed them out! It seems that either further renewals, or new and amazing projects are needed for continued success. Without Steve Jobs will that happen?

Google, while delivering some wonderful results right now, could one day suffer if for no other reason than as a result of the total lack of personal service that they offer their public. Android is certainly on an upward surge due to such giants as Samsung, not to mention HTC etc. But it will run it’s course, especially as Android is not particularly attractive to many people: it simply has lots apps…

Thus I believe that what is currently happening is simply the periodic rise and fall of companies’ fortunes. What comes ’round goes ’round..

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I’ll start by agreeing with some of the prior posters: my sensitive data is never, ever going into the cloud. Also, since I don’t use my phone as a computer (don’t want to pay for a data plan, have 19 email addresses to manage and I don’t use web mail, either), there’s the issue of access for my laptop.

As others have posted, I actually do computing on my computer. There are programs that simply cannot be scaled down, and I don’t want to be left high and dry if I don’t happen to have Internet access.

Now that I’m done with that rant, I’ll get back to the original question. I would happily move to Linux if my software vendors would develop compatible versions. One of them, though, which happens to have the best software in its area, is so Microsoft-centric that I can’t even use some of the features that require Excel (I use Libre Office). I’ll never purchase an Apple product (besides my iPod, which was the only option years ago) because of their proprietary technology. And that’s one of the best selling points of Windows: you’re not locked into Microsoft’s hardware to use it (and I don’t believe this will ever become the case; there would be too much of a rebellion).

Part of the problem with this whole debate is that the market is usually oversimplified into consumers and business. There are, of course, many levels in between these two, including the hobbyist. Yes, there are still people who like to build their own computers, or customize them into something they want rather than what the supplier thinks everybody should have. There are also home users who run powerful programs, just as there are businesses that really don’t need anything beyond email and spreadsheets.

Is Windows doomed? Not a chance, at least in my lifetime (I figure I have at least another 30 years in me). Will it ever regain its peak market share? No, but who cares? That’s a meaningless statistic, when you get down to it. The question is whether it is a viable product, supported by both the user community and the vendor. Market share can vary with the size of the market as well as with the number of users.

I’m starting to ramble — I’d better quit here!

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If people are too dependent on technology, society as a whole will become irrelevant. People will bow to their technology masters, as their ability to critically think and reason gets tossed in the digital bit bucket. We seem more willing to be distracted by technology than dealing with ourselves and the human condition. There’s many coming out of colleges unable to read beyond 7th grade level. Writing in cursive, a former indication that you are progressing towards adulthood, is being dismissed as unnecessary (we have keyboards and fonts for that). The less we do the more is lost. So, I’d say the relevance of a tech company is far from what’s really at issue. We go where the money is and the next new thing, I’m no different, but wish we all had a better grip on ourselves and how technology affects us.

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If people are too dependent on technology, society as a whole will become irrelevant

You mean, like cars and refrigeration and immunizations? It would seem that we are already there.

I think the one sure thing in this world is that things will always keep changing. Always. And it seems that the changes just keep coming faster and faster. The nice thing about that is that these insipid pads and pods and such will probably just disappear – poof! – unfortunately to be replaced by something newer and more annoying. But I think as long as basic computing is required it will be available. It might become more exotic and expensive again when the likes of Dell and HP are no longer keeping the price down by churning out mass market machines. And you might need to switch to Linux or whatever flavor of Unix becomes popular. But you should still be able to get it for quite a while in the future.

Last fall I took my first steps down that path. I built my own computer for the first time since I got out of the computer business in 1993. I figure that by making my own out of components (subassemblies, really, not chips and capacitors!) I should be able to continue to repair and upgrade my machine for a long time into the future. I don’t know how long, but then who amongst us knows how long we will live, anyway?

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I use an iPhone and some of its Apps are very useful. But when I want to do work, I use MS office on a desktop. I have yet to find an easier way to use these programs. At present, with all of the emerging security risks, I would be surprised if businesses will take the step of moving their data into the cloud, replacing all of their existing networked desktops with some form of tablet and expecting both security and productivity to improve. I therefore believe that the desktop with Microsoft Windows and associated software still has a long life ahead.

My Rig: AMD Ryzen 9 5900X 12-Core CPU; ASUS Cross Hair VIII Formula Mobo; Win 11 Pro (64 bit)-(UEFI-booted); 32GB RAM; 2TB Corsair Force Series MP600 Pro 2TB PCIe Gen 4.0 M.2 NVMe SSD. 1TB SAMSUNG 960 EVO M.2 NVME SSD; MSI GeForce RTX 3090 VENTUS 3X 24G OC; Microsoft 365 Home; Condusiv SSDKeeper Professional; Acronis Cyberprotect, VMWare Workstation Pro V17.5. HP 1TB USB SSD External Backup Drive). Dell G-Sync G3223Q 144Hz Monitor.

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Actually, most businesses are run by people who are in way over their heads. So they tend to follow the latest management fad. It’s safer that way. I would expect to see some cloud-like data storage business crop up which markets itself to businesses. And I would expect them to do well as soon as someone writes a How To Manage Your Business Data book extolling the cloud and what it will do for the manager’s resume. If it hasn’t happened already. I don’t pay much attention to self help books.

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@Backspacer:

My Rig: AMD Ryzen 9 5900X 12-Core CPU; ASUS Cross Hair VIII Formula Mobo; Win 11 Pro (64 bit)-(UEFI-booted); 32GB RAM; 2TB Corsair Force Series MP600 Pro 2TB PCIe Gen 4.0 M.2 NVMe SSD. 1TB SAMSUNG 960 EVO M.2 NVME SSD; MSI GeForce RTX 3090 VENTUS 3X 24G OC; Microsoft 365 Home; Condusiv SSDKeeper Professional; Acronis Cyberprotect, VMWare Workstation Pro V17.5. HP 1TB USB SSD External Backup Drive). Dell G-Sync G3223Q 144Hz Monitor.

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