Windows and the inexorable downward slide

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(click to expand) Horace Dediu (Asymco) has a new blog post that you should read, as we’re shuffling deck chairs and playing “Nearer, My God, to Thee.
[See the full post at: Windows and the inexorable downward slide]

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Elly, ve2mrx, WildBill, John in Mtl

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The buggy whip industry went into irreversible decline after the automobile became popular, notwithstanding manufacturers’ attempt to market their product for use with the Model T.

Well, OK, not really.  But this little chart is mostly a product of the arbitrary assumption that smartphones and PCs belong in the same category.  How many smartphone users, much less those who buy “smart” refrigerators, etc. actually think they are doing “computing” on those devices?  The fact that Microsoft attempted to colonize these devices doesn’t mean that it was a valid concept or strategy.

 

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Elly, Sessh, BobbyB, Cascadian, Bill C., SueW, ryegrass, AlexEiffel, Cybertooth, HiFlyer

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Amazing chart Woody !  All that history in one picture.  The good ‘ole TRS-80, Apple II, the Amiga, Commodores, and all the windows machines …  My first computer: an OSI Superboard (in 1979 I think) and a few years later a hand-me-down S-100 buss modular orange box with a real mechanical keyboard -:) running CP/M, woohoo!!.  Personal computing sure has come a long way since 1977.  The early years were quite an adventure, where we were discovering everything that could be done with this amazing technology, starting with the very mainstream “8086”, and if you were rich you added an 8087 math co-processor; bumped up your RAM from 6k (yes kids, that’s a whole 6,000 bytes of memory) to 640k for about 600.00$.  My first big project was a theatre lighting board using the Apple II – imagine that, controlling the lighting dimmers with a computer and being able to store all your scene presets in memory.

 

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wdburt1 wrote:

But this little chart is mostly a product of the arbitrary assumption that smartphones and PCs belong in the same category. How many smartphone users, much less those who buy “smart” refrigerators, etc. actually think they are doing “computing” on those devices? The fact that Microsoft attempted to colonize these devices doesn’t mean that it was a valid concept or strategy.

Agreed.

If we’re going to include phones in this chart, why are we excluding countless other devices? What about vehicles (most have more processing power and storage than anything on the left side of the chart), routers, all IoT devices, etc.?

The chart looks like what usually happens when you start with your conclusion, then back-fill the presentation of data to support it.

My phone does not do what my PCs do; I also have trouble stuffing a 17″ laptop into my pants pockets. Both types of devices serve different purposes, and neither will likely replace the other anytime soon.

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HiFlyer, Sheldon88, Sessh, BobbyB, Cascadian, Bill C., ryegrass, AlexEiffel, Cybertooth, WildBill

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For a disproportionate number of people, a phone does every they need anyway, so they see no need for a computer.

Also keep in mind that in a household of 4 (Mom, Dad, and two kids), you’re going to have 4 phones, 2 or 3 tablets, and at most 2 computers, if not 1 or none.

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He didn’t show Linux on his chart. I wonder how Linux (all distros combined) compares with everything else?

I hated to see Blackberry listed as one of the devices that has died out. I’ve had a few Blackberrys over the years; there’s nothing better for secure corporate email than the Blackberry.

Perhaps he should have ended the red “Mac” line and continued the NeXT line, because the modern Mac is basically NeXT with a new name.

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Cascadian

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I hated to see Blackberry listed as one of the devices that has died out

Dying, maybe, but not dead. Proud owner of a Priv, and Classic prior to it, and the KeyTwo this fall. Physical keyboard is a must for me, if they disappear I’ll go back to a flip phone.

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The “Windows PC” region in the chart cannot be correct. Windows 1.0 wasn’t released until late in 1985, yet the chart would suggest that in the previous year almost 50% of computers were already shipping with Windows. And in any case, Windows didn’t take off commercially until 1990 with version 3.0. Starting the curve in 1986 or 1990 would shatter the illusion of symmetry before/after the iMac’s introduction.

The chart might work if one includes DOS systems as “Windows” machines, but of course Windows is a very different computing paradigm from DOS.

 

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Cascadian

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Agreed. The original Asymco blog post was about the iMac. Maybe the DOS/Windows distinction was a little too esoteric for the writer.

Edit to remove HTML

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Cybertooth

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I agree the ‘over the hill’ symbolism is the desired message here, coupled with a bellcurve ‘outlier’ status.

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Cybertooth

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Cybertooth wrote:

The “Windows PC” region in the chart cannot be correct. Windows 1.0 wasn’t released until late in 1985, yet the chart would suggest that in the previous year almost 50% of computers were already shipping with Windows. And in any case, Windows didn’t take off commercially until 1990 with version 3.0. Starting the curve in 1986 or 1990 would shatter the illusion of symmetry before/after the iMac’s introduction. The chart might work if one includes DOS systems as “Windows” machines, but of course Windows is a very different computing paradigm from DOS.

IMO, “WindowsPC” should be replaced with “x86” as that’s what the chart actually displays.

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Cybertooth

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Of course, putting “x86” will leave out all of the 64-bit machines.

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I assume this is the OS that machines originally came with so Linux will be eating into those Windows machines.

Android phones is the real mover IMO especially in Asia. This is why MS tried to turn Windows into a mobile OS which is only alienating its core base.

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This chart is very misleading. It presents the picture in a very bad light for the desktop. Suppose for example we focused only on business users. Then we could say 90% have desktop PCs running Windows. Comes the cell phone, and suppose everyone gets a cell phone in addition to the computer. Then that percentage would shrink compared to before to around 50% but there would be as many PC.

The total number of devices might give a better indication. And as others have pointed out, all these devices don’t always fill the same need. Try selling Photoshop for the Smartphone… If Adobe was doing its market studies using this chart, they would stop producing Photoshop for Mac desktops and PCs and put all their efforts in an Android phone version.

I saw the author did a total number of shipments, too.  Not saying his article was bad or uninteresting. But we need to be careful about the conclusion we draw from this. Sure, we live in an era where touch is the most prevalent paradigm, but that doesn’t tell us we should have touch desktop PCs. Sure, if you follow the money, maybe you will invest more in those technologies, but if you are Microsoft and you were better at doing Windows than doing mobile, maybe you should not destroy that mature but still important market while trying to do good in the new ones.

 

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Elly, Cascadian, Ascaris, flackcatcher, wdburt1, Cybertooth

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It is a pity Remix OS has been discontinued. With Android’s huge backing of apps and active updates, I think a PC desktop version has the greatest potential to compete with Windows and possibly even overtake in the future.

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Anonymous wrote:
It is a pity Remix OS has been discontinued. With Android’s huge backing of apps and active updates, I think a PC desktop version has the greatest potential to compete with Windows and possibly even overtake in the future.

Hi, different anonymous here. Not really a huge fan of Android per se (limited user control, embedded google, often pre-installed manf crapware, too often slow or nonexistent manf updates…), but fwiw you might want to check out the Android-x86 project:

http://www.android-x86.org/

Hope this helps.

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The marker for “iMac Ships” seems to indicate the start of Windows’ decline, but ironically looking at the same chart, it seems to indicate the start of the Mac’s decline too!

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AlexEiffel

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In the article, there is a better chart in the article that gives a much more realistic understanding of what’s going on. Yes, Android is commanding a high percentage, but that’s because they opened up a new market. PC is declining, but only slightly. Android is mostly just opening a new market.

I’ll try to link the better image, but I don’t know how well that will go: http://www.asymco.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Screen-Shot-2018-05-07-at-11.39.29-AM.png

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AlexEiffel

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Interesting blog post–brings back lots of memories …

My wife and I used to *kid around* (see future–pun–intended) with our son that we hoped Nintendo would still be around when he went to college, and had a job available for him when the time came–that used his very practiced and intelligent thumb hand eye coordination!

Fast forward some 20 plus years–I think my wife and I were *seeing* the future, but we did not realize the full extent of what we were imaging–our son now has an advanced degree in software engineering with a specialty in android devices–and his well oiled thumbs are faster than I’ve ever seen on a smart phone! (By the way–he ditched his Windows base desktop and laptop years ago–after his first visit to Africa as part of his dissertation preparation–too insecure with all the viruses and malware–he switched to a MAC laptop and has never looked back!)

Just in Time

There are two platforms–though unlike Windows, Android is fragmented and iOS is not just on one form factor. Nevertheless there is stasis. The touch UI which begat nine billion devices is normative. The next interaction metaphor has not emerged as an obvious successor.

I’ll take a stab at that!

Voice activated computing–it will leave the smartphone touch screen in the dust! It will not matter what OS is being used.

It’s already here! See the Xfinity’s voice activated remote control. A secretary in one office where I work is using a smartphone app that she dictates all her text messages by–she is of my son’s generation–but as a woman, never was into the Nintendo gaming so her thumbs are not so well oiled. Her skill at using a voice app to send texts is a marvel to listen to–very fast and knows all the control commands to format a message quickly.

But, be careful what we wish for! Can you image walking around, especially in a crowded corridor, busy mall, a pub, or an elevator–you never saw a Star Trek episode where everyone was trying to access the computer during a Klingon attack emergency at the same time–oh boy, what a mess that would have been! And will be in the future ….

Let’s see how that guesstimate holds up over the next few years ….

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Voice-activated prompts often don’t work for me – they usually misunderstand what I am saying. Also, there’s no privacy with voice-activated prompts – everyone in the room hears everything you are saying.

There needs to always be a keystroke option, in addition to the voice-activated prompts.

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Elly, Cybertooth

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We often see the idiom ‘apples and oranges’ for similar things that are not alike. Well apples, oranges, pears, and bananas are all fruit, but this chart adds spinach, potatoes, and carrots to present the the entire produce section.

It’s like saying motorcycle sales are squeezing out the pickup truck market.

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Cybertooth

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I agree with most of the criticism of that chart written by others earlier. I would like to put mine in this way:

Assume that the following disappear overnight and there won’t be any more of them for at least a decade:

(a) All smartphones.

(b) All tablets.

(c) All PCs (desktops and laptops, regardless of OS).

Which, (a), (b), or (c), will have the worst effect on the functioning of modern industrial societies?

The relative abundances of those three kinds of device shown in that chart are not very meaningful. The decline in the number of PCs is well-known and largely explained by the fact that, years ago, PCs were the only way to do what most people do today with their cell phones and tablets.

 

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Cascadian, AlexEiffel

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Yes obviously smartphones are most important today in the mobile world and people  in the future will probably just dock their phones to get the desktop experience.

 

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Good point!

The computing power that can be crammed into a cell phone, not even a large smartphone, is already tremendous. I imagine that if the trend of them having ever more powerful computer engines inside continues…

But then again, a dedicated computer that is not used for making all sorts of contacts, both secure and otherwise, is always likely to be more secure than a cell phone from hacking by black hats, free lance, or working for a foreign power, or in the employ of a commercial or research competitor.

So the IT security people of a workplace will probably be adverse to allow such small and portable things that can be easily taken away to unsecured locations, or else be brought in and plug into the LAN clandestinely, to be used for work of any importance to that organization, much as is already the case with thumb drives and portable storage media in general, that are banned in many places.

Of course, it is theoretically possible to issue secure cell phones to the work force and keep them chained to their desks (the cellphones), but I imagine this would look pretty ridiculous even to those running the place.

 

Ex-Windows user (Win. 98, XP, 7); since mid-2017 using also macOS. Presently on Monterey 12.15 & sometimes running also Linux (Mint).

MacBook Pro circa mid-2015, 15" display, with 16GB 1600 GHz DDR3 RAM, 1 TB SSD, a Haswell architecture Intel CPU with 4 Cores and 8 Threads model i7-4870HQ @ 2.50GHz.
Intel Iris Pro GPU with Built-in Bus, VRAM 1.5 GB, Display 2880 x 1800 Retina, 24-Bit color.
macOS Monterey; browsers: Waterfox "Current", Vivaldi and (now and then) Chrome; security apps. Intego AV

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Cybertooth

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