Will the chip shortage impact you?

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https://twitter.com/BBCTech/status/1357494244001411075 I’ve seen this in the news – a shortage in chips will impact cars and other technology. Earlier
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Susan Bradley Patch Lady/Prudent patcher

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doriel

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During December, 2020 ASUS advised us that there would be a delay in shipping a replacement A3100 RT-AC88U Wi-Fi router due to a component shortage.

Their message read,

“Dear Valued Customer,

The global outbreak of the coronavirus has caused delays in the availability of replacement parts from our suppliers at the moment. Because of that, it may take us a bit longer than normal to complete repairs for you. How long that will be depends on the product and the specific case. We’re doing the best we can to get your product back to you as soon as possible. We’re sorry for any inconvenience this delay caused. For any inquiries, please contact ASUS Customer Service directly.”

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Maybe this could have positive impact. I dont know how is it in America, but here in Europe, cars are being full of electronics and it starts to misbehave. For example in new VW or Skoda during the winter, you wont experience a ride, without some sensor screaming or malfunctioning. Sensors are covered with snow or they freeze and then the car is complaining, I have to turn those sytems off in order to enjoy the ride. Not my cup of tea, to be honest. I own motorcycle veterans as investiotion. Its far more fun to drive those old fashioned cars and motorcycles, but driving modern car is so easy, that even bad drivers can go 200kph.

So far no electronics purchase is problems here (Europe), the only thing that is not available is high-end graphics, but this was true even before this situation came. Also headsets are sometimes available after 3 or more weeks, because very lot of people started to meet via internet.

May be off topic, but ..Today I saw man repairing elevator and you wont belive how much PCBs I saw on the top of the elevator cabin. I was curious so I asked him if I can look. Very interesting job he has.

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Charlie

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The so-called “chipmaggedon”, the current acute shortage of computer chips, is being caused by a number of concurrent reasons: pandemic-related industrial slowdown on one hand, greater demand of computers for working from home on the other, plus several other related and unrelated issues: car sales slumped down so chip makers cut down production volume, but now sales of cars have increased greatly again, so car manufacturers are having problems because of a still short supply of chips. Most chips are made in Korea and Taiwan, so production of chips is highly sensitive to any industrial problems there. And so on.

This article from the BBC explains the various reasons, some unrelated, some cascading from an initial one — it is the one Susan has given the URL link to, and I am including it also here for the reader’s convenience; also some people, depending on the browser they are using, might have a problem trying to read this article, as I have found the hard way. With FF, reading it works OK :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55936011

In case someone has trouble seeing this article, this other one covers the issues as well:

https://gizmodo.com/chip-makers-warn-of-continued-gadget-shortages-through-1846197483

Bottom line (BBC) :

“Waiting times for some car models will increase.

And some gadgets may also become hard to find.

The biggest players, such as Samsung and Apple, have the buying power to ensure they have priority.

But smaller brands may be disproportionately affected.

“That means products could get more expensive – or at least not fall in price over time as you would normally expect,” Ben Wood, from the CCS Insight consultancy, says.

“And supply will be limited.

“So if there’s a gadget you really want to get, don’t think about hanging around to see if there’s a better deal in a few months’ time.” “

Ex-Windows user (Win. 98, XP, 7); since mid-2017 using also macOS. Presently on Monterey 12.15 & sometimes running also Linux (Mint).

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The ‘chip shortage’ is very real.  If you buy or sell pro video or cinema cameras, big boys like Sony, Panasonic, JVC and Canon are already experiencing shortages of certain models that use high-end chips, with backorders expected to run into June.

Being that a large number of chips are made in Taiwan, it is a foregone conclusion that the stability and sovereignty of that island is a matter of US National Security.  Defense and IT contractors need those chips to keep our defense systems up to date.  A major kink in that supply chain could be very …. bad.

"War is the remedy our enemies have chosen. And I say let us give them all they want" ----- William T. Sherman

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doriel, OscarCP, Charlie

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To Mr. Anon, regarding your post/comment,  it was too political.  Remember at this time political comments are only allowed in the rant venue, not here.

Susan Bradley Patch Lady/Prudent patcher

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andrewbore

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It’s not just the 300mm Wafer diameter lead edge node Fabs that’s having Wafer Starts Capacity issues it’s the 200mm Wafer and on older process nodes fabs that make the chips for Cars, Tosters, and Whatnot chips. Look at all the ARM/MIPS based Controller chips in a Laptop/PC from the device’s Ethernet/NIC chip and the Hard-Drive/SSD drive controller chips and then there is the DRAM and NAND chips themselves.

So all manner of controller chips on PCs/PC MBs and Laptops/Laptop MBs and peripherals that are ARM/MIPS/RISC-V based and even the GPU cards are not just hosting the GPU Die but the other Controller chips and VRM controllers to manage the power delivery and if any one component is in short supply that holds up the entire device’s release!  Personal Computers, laptops and Phones/Tablets have many smaller controllers on their Motherboards that have supply chains that have to be stable and uninterrupted or things can not be made!  So that’s all a parts supply chain that’s only as strong as its weakest supply link and a single little component that can not be supplied or second sourced and the whole production line grinds to a halt.

This should have every single Chip Maker in front of several Congressional Committees and some questions answered   and some methods developed to assure that this sort of supply issue does not happen again! It’s not all the Pandemic it’s just not planning in advance for events like a Pandemic and really some supplies where getting tight before the pandemic even started!

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I’m neither here nor there as NAND and RAM chips have been here before, last in 2016 IIRC
I also remember the RAM shortages where prices went into orbit.
What does concern me is, the supply to medical services that need certain equipment and replacements.

Windows - commercial by definition and now function...

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wavy

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Last year I planned to replace my Win 7 Laptop with a win 10 pro with 17″ screen..but there was a paucity of decent priced alternatives..every time I look at Office depot..an indicator more than a source..there was lot’s of outages except for  high end gaming rigs. I needed a Win10 to run upcoming tax software and I needed time to get used to it..so I baled on the new laptop plan and bought a refurb win10 pro desktop..A better choice. I read about the auto shortage..expected to ding auto sales by 3-4% and not be resolved till mid 2021. Chip makers reallocated to consumer electronics to meet WFH & home schooling demand surge..and still there are shortages. An interesting question is what happens if China “Hong Kong’s” Taiwan, since Taiwan Semi is a big chunk of the global semi supply chain. Intel recently going with them to Fab 7nm or some such.

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Last year had so many domino effects causing the technology sector to have shortages. From Covid 19, remote learning and businesses going remote. To Bitcoin mining and the graphic card shortages.  Schools were buying up anything they could in Chromebook’s. This year I see all this settling down a bit. Intel says it is caught up and will start making Pentium and Celeron chips again. They had to focus on the high tier models for awhile just to keep up. I think this was due more to tight foundry scheduling again due to Covid 19. I bought technology in 2019 so I really wasn’t buying much all last year.

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News like this certainly does not help:
Factory blaze adds to computer chip supply crisis

Windows - commercial by definition and now function...

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OscarCP

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[Alex5723]

Stellantis pickups hit, Ford cuts production due to global chip shortage

“On Thursday, Ford said it would assemble its flagship, highly profitable F-150 pickup truck as well as Edge SUVs in North America without certain parts and then hold them “for a number of weeks” until they can be completed and shipped”..

• This reply was modified 4 years, 1 month ago by Alex5723.

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According to Intel Corp. Chief Executive Officer Pat GelsingerIt, it looks like the chip shortage may continue into 2023.  And in fact, he thinks the situation may get worse before it gets better.

The ongoing shortage will have negative impacts on the availability of new cars, smart phones, payment cards, electric toothbrushes, televisions, consumer appliances, and IT related products.

Some key drivers for the shortage include:

• The post COVID economic recovery,
• Fundamental changes in the workplace that are driving demand for digital systems,
• Increased use of chips in consumer products, and
• Sanctions against China

So, it is time to develop and implement life extension programs for your computers, hard drives, routers, modems, etc. to ensure your IT functions will operate flawlessly over the next two years.

Sources:

• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-25/intel-ceo-says-chip-shortage-to-hit-bottom-in-second-half
• https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/chip-shortage-is-starting-to-have-major-real-world-consequences.html

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A 6.6 magnitude earthquake has hit production lines of a Toshiba semi-conductor factory in Oita, Japan.
Official statement from Toshiba

Windows - commercial by definition and now function...

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samak, SueW

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According to Josh Horwitz and Sarah Wu of Reuters, Apple and others face shipment delays as China COVID curbs squeeze suppliers. The article is dated April 15, 2022.

They report that shipments of some Apple products are likely to face delivery delays if China’s COVID-19 lockdowns as well as transportation/logistics disruptions ripple through global supply chains.

The Apple products most at risk are the iPhone 13, iPhone SE series, other older model cell phones, and Apple’s Macbooks.

The production of other laptop makers may also be dislocated including those of the Lenovo Group Ltd and Dell Technologies Inc.

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/apple-others-face-shipment-delays-china-covid-curbs-squeeze-suppliers-analysts-2022-04-15/

 

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Chip shortages will no doubt affect my life in some way but at least for the present and foreseeable future I won’t need to buy a new car.  I drive a 2012 Scion TC made by Toyota with the same engine as a Camry, a 1990 Chrysler LeBaron V6 Coupe, and a 1969 Mustang 302 V8 coupe.  They all run great.  I have a 4G flip phone which I could be happy with for the next 20 years.  But that’s me.

Being 20 something in the 70's was far more fun than being 70 something in the insane 20's

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OscarCP

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It could be affecting probably more than cars: cell phones, computers, IoT stuff …

But I do not have, some as Charlie, a need for a new car, another cell phone, or a new computer, or want to have any IoT stuff: my not-so-smart appliances: fridge, thermostat, light switches, etc., etc. and I get along just fine the way things are around this house.

Ex-Windows user (Win. 98, XP, 7); since mid-2017 using also macOS. Presently on Monterey 12.15 & sometimes running also Linux (Mint).

MacBook Pro circa mid-2015, 15" display, with 16GB 1600 GHz DDR3 RAM, 1 TB SSD, a Haswell architecture Intel CPU with 4 Cores and 8 Threads model i7-4870HQ @ 2.50GHz.
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Charlie

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A shortage of new PCs will slow the deployment of Windows 11.

And it may become difficult to obtain cell phones compatible with 4 and 5G systems as carriers move away from 3G service.

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BBC headline April 15, 2022 Shanghai lockdown: iPhone maker halts operations at China sites

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61089733

In summary:

• A major producer of Apple iPhones (Pegatron) has halted operations at their Shanghai and Kunshan facilities because of the COVID lock-down.
• Quanta, a major Chinese Apple MacBook manufacturer, has also paused activities.
• Likewise, Compal Electronics, an iPad maker, has paused activities.

The impact according to the BBC is as follows:

• The loss of production of three million iPhones so far this month,
• The loss of production of two million iPads, and
• The loss of production of one million MacBooks.

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Time to make stuff here again.

Just because you don't know where you are going doesn't mean any road will get you there.

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wavy: “Time to make stuff here again.”

High time, actually. As part of the ripple effect of unintended consequences, things just might be about starting to move in that direction. If so, how far this will go? No idea.

Ex-Windows user (Win. 98, XP, 7); since mid-2017 using also macOS. Presently on Monterey 12.15 & sometimes running also Linux (Mint).

MacBook Pro circa mid-2015, 15" display, with 16GB 1600 GHz DDR3 RAM, 1 TB SSD, a Haswell architecture Intel CPU with 4 Cores and 8 Threads model i7-4870HQ @ 2.50GHz.
Intel Iris Pro GPU with Built-in Bus, VRAM 1.5 GB, Display 2880 x 1800 Retina, 24-Bit color.
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Yes, chip shortage will have an impact. Ripple effect.

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wavy wrote:

Time to make stuff here again.

So devices will cost 3x current prices ?

A ‘Made in America’ iPhone Would Cost $2,000, Studies Show

…Rassweiler says making all of the iPhone’s parts in the U.S. would push the price of the iPhone’s components from $190 to around $600. “If the materials alone are costing $600,” says Rassweilier, “it stands to reason, that same iPhone could cost, perhaps, $2,000 at retail.”…

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Alex5723 wrote:

, $2,000 at retail.”…

That would make the decision easy, keep the old phone.

Just because you don't know where you are going doesn't mean any road will get you there.

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OscarCP, Charlie

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wavy: “That would make the decision easy, keep the old phone. ”

And cut down on the waste and the need to mine finite and even rare minerals, in some documented cases by workers doing it in near-slavery conditions (as discussed earlier in other threads), needed to make the chips in those devices that, at current prices, people eager to show off and the companies that make the devices having support policies with a quickly arriving end of support, cause the throwing away, frequently, of large quantities of perfectly good hardware. Recycling helps limit the need to mine those minerals, but not everyone using these devices is recycling-inclined, or has a clue about their gadgets being recyclable, not to mention knowing where and how to do it.

Ex-Windows user (Win. 98, XP, 7); since mid-2017 using also macOS. Presently on Monterey 12.15 & sometimes running also Linux (Mint).

MacBook Pro circa mid-2015, 15" display, with 16GB 1600 GHz DDR3 RAM, 1 TB SSD, a Haswell architecture Intel CPU with 4 Cores and 8 Threads model i7-4870HQ @ 2.50GHz.
Intel Iris Pro GPU with Built-in Bus, VRAM 1.5 GB, Display 2880 x 1800 Retina, 24-Bit color.
macOS Monterey; browsers: Waterfox "Current", Vivaldi and (now and then) Chrome; security apps. Intego AV

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Charlie

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