Terabyte update 2022

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ISSUE 19.25 • 2022-06-20 HARDWARE By Will Fastie This year, the trend line for storage prices is harder to discern. In last year’s installment of this
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ibe98765, fisher75, DLivesInTexas, windbg, OscarCP, rc primak

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By coincidence, I did a similar survey for myself. My survey was similarly limited to Western Digital HDDs vs (WD)SanDisk and Crucial SSDs  But I looked at raw cost per GB without regard for device size. Nor did I have any historical records.

The absolute cheapest was a 4000 GB WD Blue 3.5″ HDD for $65 – or 1.6 cents per GB.

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The wild card in computer hardware costs for the coming year is the war in the Ukraine.

One of the world’s biggest suppliers (Russia) of neon, argon and helium used in the manufacture of semiconductors has started to limit exports.

In addition, 45 to 54% of the neon gas used for semiconductor manufacturing has been lost through the shutdown of production facilities in the Ukrainian.

As a result, chip makers are facing a shortage of essential raw materials.

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DLivesInTexas, windbg, Will Fastie, OscarCP

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On a personal reflective and rather somber note:

I imagine that computer components, and the computers themselves are likely to continue at current prices, or some at even lower ones, perhaps from between one or two years to perhaps five, taking into account the reasons given by Will Fastie in his article for being hopeful that they will be.

Beyond that, the future of computer components, mass-storage drives included, is even less predictable than usual, because, in part, of the way the world’s industrial production and economy have been globalized and also concentrated in fewer hands.

Meaning that production and services have been exported to far away nations, where this has been beneficial by increasing employment, even if at a low pay, and rising people from serious poverty while increasing the numbers of the technically skilled, but greatly extending the lines of transportation that are subject to the chain-supply issues we are currently experiencing; a globalization that have left many without employment, satisfying or at all, back at home. This along with the monopolistic development of mega corporations controlling most of the production in many key industries, as well as overwhelming their competition with their sheer size, are some of the developments that have been under way since the late 70s.

These are deeply rooted systemic issues that are not quickly, or easily changed.

They have certainly increased, overall, shareholder value, but have left the highly integrated and overstretched world economy in a fragile state that unexpected events are now severely testing, including the ongoing pandemic. This being followed closely by a series of catastrophic natural events that evidence increasingly indicates are the symptoms of a changing climate.

And the unprecedented conditions for economic growth and increasing prosperity that lasted from 1945 through 1976, and to a lesser extent until more recently, when people could still reasonably expect to be making and getting more and better things to continue improving their standards of living, probably are no longer going to be there. What we may have ahead, instead, is a long prospect of doing less with less.

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OscarCP wrote:

On a … rather somber note:

I would share that pessimism except for one thing – rapid deployment of fabrication facilities outside the PACRIM. For example, last November Micron said it would invest $150B over the next decade and throughout the world, including the US, to increase memory fabrication capability.

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OscarCP

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Will Fastie: “rapid deployment of fabrication facilities outside the PACRIM” (Pacific Rim nations: in this context mainly China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan — maybe also with Singapore,  Australia and New Zealand?)

That is precisely the reason for short-time hopefulness I mentioned early in my long and not too-hopeful comment.

Ex-Windows user (Win. 98, XP, 7); since mid-2017 using also macOS. Presently on Monterey 12.15 & sometimes running also Linux (Mint).

MacBook Pro circa mid-2015, 15" display, with 16GB 1600 GHz DDR3 RAM, 1 TB SSD, a Haswell architecture Intel CPU with 4 Cores and 8 Threads model i7-4870HQ @ 2.50GHz.
Intel Iris Pro GPU with Built-in Bus, VRAM 1.5 GB, Display 2880 x 1800 Retina, 24-Bit color.
macOS Monterey; browsers: Waterfox "Current", Vivaldi and (now and then) Chrome; security apps. Intego AV

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Kathy Stevens wrote:

One of the world’s biggest suppliers (Russia) of neon, argon and helium used in the manufacture of semiconductors has started to limit exports.

But, apparently, not to China and India.

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OscarCP

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I used lots of 2 tb drives as cartridges, having gradually replaced HD drives (those are dutifully kept as desperation backups). I always buy the cheapest reputable solid state devices I can find, including 2.5″ ssds. Currently I keep an eye on the price of Leven brand 2 TB ssds at Amazon, which are around $130. That’s been trending gradually downward. I find that Newegg and Amazon usually match each other in a slow downward spiral. I’ve bought about 10 Leven drives at this point and none has failed so far.

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You can buy a 14TB WD HDD (on Amazon – Western DigitalBCKA0140HBK-NESN) for $249 = $0.178 for 1000 GB.

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Micron, AMD, and other chip makers have noted that the high rate of inflation and Chinese lock-downs are squeezing global consumer demand for smart phones, PCs, automobiles, and other chip intensive products.

As a result, the demand for chips is likely to remain depressed for the next two quarters.

 

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OscarCP

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Gartner Inc. has reported the fastest decline in personal computer shipments in nearly a decade. A second quarter decline of 12.6% from a year ago.

They report that the primary drivers of the decline included:

• Geopolitical instability caused by the Russian Invasion of Ukraine,
• Inflationary pressure on spending, and
• A steep downturn in demand for Chromebooks.

They also reported that:

• Supply chain disruptions continued but at a lower level,
• Component shortages eased, but
• Logistics disruptions continued.

And, according to Gartner, vendor unit shipments changed – 2Q22 vs 2Q21:

• Lenovo shipments 17,863 vs 20,419
• HP Inc. 13,506 vs 18,617
• Dell 13,298 vs 14,035
• Apple 6,365 vs 5,822
• Acer 5,094 vs 6,264
• ASUS 4,697 vs 4,909
• Others 11,186 vs 12,359
• Total 72,011 vs 82,424

The Gartner data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs, ultramobile premiums (such as Microsoft Surface) and Chromebooks, but not iPads.

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windbg

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Kathy Stevens wrote:

Gartner Inc. has reported the fastest decline in personal computer shipments in nearly a decade. A second quarter decline of 12.6% from a year ago.

Except for Apple which was up ~9%.

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Alex5723

It is not, “Except for Apple which was up ~9%.”

Total second quarter computer sales declined by 10,413 units vs a year ago (a 12.6% decline).

If Apple sales had not increased by 543 units the 12.6% loss would have been greater.

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Kathy Stevens wrote:

If Apple sales had not increased by 543 units

Increased by 543,000 (Macs).
Apple is the number 1 pc seller for years if you add iPads, which are PCs, but doesn’t count as such by IDC (yet they do count Surface as PCs. Microsoft paying ?).

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The 2nd PC ever bought in 1986 had a 30 MB (megabyte or 0.00003 TB) hard drive that cost me $370 .  My 1st PC did not have a hard drive.  LOL.

Times sure have changed.

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