A break – in praise of COVID-19 sanity

Topic

I’m not an epidemiologist. You aren’t either. But I’ve bumped into a tremendous series of Tweets from someone who is, Alistair Miles. I rarely comment
[See the full post at: A break – in praise of COVID-19 sanity]

Total of 30 users thanked author for this post. Here are last 20 listed.

Chessie, Elly, Microfix, bradam, migongo, E Pericoloso Sporgersi, OldBiddy, jburk07, Kathy Stevens, Myst, Pepsiboy, KWGuy, abbodi86, GreatAndPowerfulTech, Karlston, David F, Spiral, Kirsty, AJNorth

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Also law enforcement, fire and utilities personnel. They can’t isolate themselves for weeks.

14 users thanked author for this post.

Chessie, Elly, Microfix, geekdom, migongo, jburk07, Myst, GreatAndPowerfulTech, Karlston, Spiral, AJNorth, AlphaCharlie, woody, PKCano

Thanks Woody.

I don’t work in healthcare and never have, but since retirement I have had a lot of involvement with local and area healthcare providers in the UK through voluntary work as a patient representative involved in healthcare strategy, trying to ensure that the patient’s voice is heard whenever new policies are being formulated. In this context I have discussed the current coronavirus situation and the additional general advice that people need to heed is quite simple – keep things in proportion. Cut through the alarmist and doomsday headlines that aren’t designed to inform, they’re designed to sell newspapers. Take sensible precautions but don’t over-worry about the situation.

Ironically, it’s all a bit like a computer virus in that sense. The people who are over-reacting (at least at this stage) to the coronavirus are very likely the same people who will tell you to install the latest Windows Update the second it’s released because the sky will fall in if you don’t! Keep a sense of proportion in all things.

And yes, those who do work in the healthcare sector are doing a fantastic job, and thoroughly deserve our support and thanks.

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Elly, Chessie, Microfix, jburk07, LH, Myst, Karlston, AlphaCharlie, PKCano, woody

Border services people deserve a shout-out, too. Their job is horrible and trauma-inducing at the best of times. But when something like foot-and-mouth, Sars, or Covid comes along, it gets amplified even more.

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Chessie, Elly, Microfix, geekdom, jburk07, Myst, GreatAndPowerfulTech, Karlston, AlphaCharlie, rexr, PKCano, woody

Many thanks Woody, we’re just starting to see a few cases in the UK now, so we’re geared up for it.

As mentioned by others, our colleagues in other areas of the Public Sector also deserve praise for all the good work they do often under very difficult circumstances with all the budget cuts we’ve had over here

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Elly, Microfix, Myst, woody

How many folks have died from the Flu this year and this new COVID-19 virus what’s the mortality rate currently as well. Certainly any new infectious disease needs to be protected against until some vaccine is developed that can be taken to bolster folk’s immune response. As for the current lack of a widely available vaccine for COVID-19, protective measures are the only solution until a proper and effective vaccine is developed and is widely available.

I’ve just been over to my local medical center pharmacy to fill monthly subscriptions. And where once face masks where readily available for the taking at the various sanitation stations around the facility, made available for clients to make use of to protect themselves from the normal flu/other infections, those face masks now have to be requested from the information/front desk and other staffed locations around the facility in order to keep the face mask stocks from being rapidity depleted.

But all sorts of infections can be deadly depending on the person’s overall health to begin with and the at risk folks have more that just COVID-19 to watch out for. The first responders need the most protection and need that vaccine ASAP along with any at risk populations.

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woody

Anon: about 10,000 people have died, in the US alone, this flu season, which isn’t over yet. The mortality rate of Covid19, at two months in, seems to be between 3 and 5%.

GreatAndPowerfulTech

I spent the majority of my working career in the pharmaceuticals industry, working on regulatory and drug safety matters.  I’ve been following the COVID19 outbreak and the epidemological numbers from China are quite interesting.  Of the just over 72,000 cases, only 2% of those are for individuals under the age of 20 and it only reaches 10% if you increase the age threshold to 30.  We need numbers from other regions both within and outside of China to see if this pattern holds up.  Serious morbidity and mortality appears to be affecting older patients (81% of all cases are reported as mild across the population surveyed).

Clinical trials are underway both in and outside of China on an approved anti-viral that may prove to be effective in treating the virus.  A vaccine is at least 12-18 months away.  What needs to be done is to continue this research as these types of viral outbreaks will continue in the future.

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ryegrass, woody

The article mentions that masks have not proven to be effective (perhaps so so little about this is PROVEN) but they are around for a reason. (ok maybe not so much around as Amazon has prices 20 to 40 times the previous cost for the ‘cheaper’ masks) From what I have gathered there are two reasons for masks:
1 keep a patient from being infected by a surgeon or other staff or an infected person from infecting others (the blood splatter they love to show on Drs shows) . Preventing egress of infecting agents

2 keep the wearer from getting infected. Preventing ingress of infecting agents

The flat rectangular surgeon’s masks are of the former type. The molded masks with the little metal band are included in the latter. The latter type come in various grades/ratings. Here in the states a good grade is the N95 type which is rated to filter out 95% of of .3 Microns in size. Some of these should be good for both purposes, but some have an unfiltered vent to allow easier breathing. The ones labeled ‘dust masks’ are probably a toss up as to any utility at all.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NIOSH_air_filtration_rating#NIOSH_Ratings
I bought a couple of the dust masks still on the shelves and still have a couple of used N95s from the Anthrax scare at work in 2001 ??.

I found this a worthy article:http://www.psandman.com/col/panflu4-1.htm#pagetop. 13 years old but still informative.

Just because you don't know where you are going doesn't mean any road will get you there.

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bradam, Karlston, woody

The news in the US said 14,000 have died from the flu so far this year.

Statistic say 14,000 was 0.1% of the people that contracted the flu.

Latest Corona is running at 2.3% die.

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LH, woody

Although we should all thank China for what they have done to slow the contagion the stats from there must be taken with a grain of salt, especially with the indications that some are infected but asymptomatic. Also we do not have a reliable time line.

Keeping fingers crossed and cleaned often.

Just because you don't know where you are going doesn't mean any road will get you there.

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OscarCP

One of the problems with establishing the likely overall mortality rate with COVID-19 is that based on the positive testing it seems that for many people it has either no symptoms or only very slight ones, hence it’s extremely unlikely that all the cases at the lower end of the scale are being reported and recorded, whilst the deaths at the top end of the scale most probably are.

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Ascaris

The initial morbidity rate when the disease was first discovered in China was a lot higher, 2-4%, but after the government and medical people became more aware of it, the morbidity rate in later reports in the rest of the country dropped to 0.7%, after the milder cases were added to the tally.

One source is The Guardian, though I have seen those numbers (along with the explanation of them as above) in more places.  It is not as deadly as SARS was.

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Myst

Ascaris, I really hope so. One problem with the morbidity rate is the completeness, reliability and, in some cases, credibility of the total number of cases. Deaths, for example, are easier to count that, let’s say, mild cases that nobody bothers to go to see a doctor about, because “what I have it’s probably just a mild flu or a cold — I’ll be OK.” That cause of a miscounting is actually a good one: things might be better than we know! Other possible causes: not so much.

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“The good thing about science is that it’s true, whether or not you believe in it.”

— Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson

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Elly, Microfix, SueW, jburk07, geekdom, LH, Myst, GreatAndPowerfulTech, ryegrass, Carl, woody

The Atlantic has a really good article on this by Dr. James Hamblin, staff writer and lecturer at the Yale School of Public Health.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

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woody

In the meantime, my 403b has crashed. This sounds crass, but when you’re on a fixed income ….

Let’s hope the medical community gets the funding and resources needed to contain this. I don’t think this rises, or will rise, to the level of the Spanish Flu pandemic during WWI (millions of deaths), but their are some similarities in how it’s spreading. At this point, who knows?

Has the source (animal, avian) even been identified yet? Should people with compromised immune systems be more concerned? Does this year’s flu vaccine offer any protection? Will it die out with warmer weather approaching?

So many questions since I have no medical training or background. But I don’t think panic is an appropriate response.

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doriel

It’s important that we do what we are able to do during this time and that includes realizing that others are working on our behalf to find solutions.

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Myst

Kudos for this Woody.

COVID-19 is a different “beast”.  An infected individual can have no signs that they are ill yet they can transmit the illness. By they time they recognize the fact that they are sick, the damage has already been done.

COVID-19 is now spreading faster in other countries than it is now in China. South Korea is taking a big hit.

Many healthcare workers put their health on the line each day for us and our loved ones. They deserve a huge thanks for this.

Byte me!

It is hard for me to know what to make of the news and commentary on this new illness, because the places where it is a serious problem now, with serious outbreaks going on, are not necessarily comparable to other places in the world. Unless there is a big enough outbreak where one lives, and I so very much hope that won’t be the case, what does it all mean where one lives? In my case, at least, I don’t have yet the slightest idea. I hope the necessary preparations by the public health officials are already in place or getting there quickly. But, since I don’t know about those either, the best I can do is wash my hands with soap, carefully rubbing them everywhere, to move away from people coughing, sneezing or showing other symptoms of respiratory distress, unless they are crying for help — in other words: taking the same basic precautions one takes not to catch the flu.

There is no vaccine; one is in the works and has been fast-tracked with generous government funding in the USA, but it won’t be available, and this with some luck, until next years’ flu season when, maybe, this new virus may be paying us another visit as well. But for 2020, this is it. If one develops particularly strong and persistent flu-like symptoms, check as soon as possible with a doctor: if it is the new virus, there are potentially useful ameliorating treatments with antiviral flu remedies and some medications used to treat HIV. The new virus and the HIV one are both retroviruses: they have RNA, not DNA in their nuclei, and that is why what works for one might also work for the other, as I understand it.

As to the personnel that is taking care of making preparations now and those that will be in the  front lines in case of a big outbreak, helping to contain, treat and assist patients and their relatives, they will have a most important and, some of them, also a dangerous job. There is evidence of just how dangerous from the cases of some doctors and other health providers that have contracted the illness and died when treating patients of this disease, including the physician that first warned about its dangerous new virus, in China.

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[_Reassigned Account]

This virus brings back a lesson learned many decades ago when we had no vaccines to prevent small pox, or other viruses that killed many thousands. Hopefully science can address this current virus and create a vaccine. This should provide a notable wake up call for the anti vax crowd who thinks vaccinations are bad. So far, its the best defense we have.

• This reply was modified 5 years, 3 months ago by _Reassigned Account.

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wavy, jburk07

Being one who grew up in an era of pre-vacine and tuberculosis and other nasties (personally chicken pox, measles twice, mumps, etc) I couldn’t agree with you more. I don’t hold out much hope for the anti-vax crowd however – can’t let research, studies, and facts get in the way.

Switch off the news. Switch off the online chatter. Avoid spreading what others are saying so you don’t unintentionally spread misinformation.  Keep up using stats maintained by John Hopkins.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

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Pierre77, jburk07

The best way to deal with the COVID-19 virus is to:

1. Have unfettered access to information from the professional staff of the of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Knowledge is key to minimizing the virus’s impact our families and communities.
2. Don’t share your keyboard with your colleagues, and
3. Be prepared to work from home.

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jburk07

OscarCP wrote:

including the physician that first warned about its dangerous new virus, in China.

R.I.P. this doctor is concidered to be a peoples hero in China

* _ ... _ *

Fred wrote:

R.I.P. this doctor is concidered to be a peoples hero in China

Definitely NOT A Peoples Hero but a hero of the people although tthat is likely to change because the spin is gone.

Just because you don't know where you are going doesn't mean any road will get you there.

[jhvance]

If you don’t normally read the South China Morning Post, take the time to read this primer from today’s paper (well, yesterday now Hong Kong time) — an excellent summation of how we came to be in these present circumstances.

https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3052721/wuhan-killer/index.html?src=pm

• This reply was modified 5 years, 3 months ago by jhvance. Reason: italicized the SCMP name

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Microfix, SueW, bradam, Fred, OscarCP, Pierre77, jburk07

This is a remarkably detailed and comprehensive, as well as very well written, piece of investigative journalism.

Besides the issues so well described in the “South China Morning Post” article, there has been also criticism of the Word Health organization for delaying the classification of the outbreaks of the new disease as one presenting a serious world-wide risk. The reason seems to have been the reluctance of the people at the top of the WHO to upset the Chinese government leaders, of which they clearly needed to have the fullest possible cooperation. If this was actually what happened, then it would also highlight the complexities of human interactions even at the highest science-based levels of decision-making and even while under seriously threatening and potentially dire circumstances.

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Fred

[jhvance]

jhvance wrote:

If you don’t normally read the South China Morning Post, take the time to read this primer from today’s paper (well, yesterday now Hong Kong time) — an excellent summation of how we came to be in these present circumstances.

https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3052721/wuhan-killer/index.html?src=pm

• This reply was modified 5 years, 3 months ago by jhvance. Reason: italicized the SCMP name

[@]jhvance Thank you very much for sharing , I have passed this on. Information here is so scattered.  regards

* _ ... _ *

Interesting read jhvance. Thanks.

What I learned:

1) The Chinese medical community is more competent than I had envisioned and also much better equipped.
2) Determining possible cross-species viral transfer and intermediate host(s) is very difficult.
3) Government needs to step aside and heed the advice of medical professionals.
4) Public disclosure is an absolute necessity.

What I fear for the USA is that the same mistakes are being made. Obviously, the CDC is highly qualified.

Edited for content.

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jburk07

Concerning Alistair Miles’s advice, I want to remark about his points 4 and 9.

Wearing a face mask makes it a lot easier to avoid touching your mouth and nose. (Safety) glasses (sunglasses) also help to not touch your eyes.

I can honestly claim this by personal experience because I’ve been a dentist for 37 years (long retired now), and considering my age and copd, Miles confirms I am more at risk.

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OscarCP

Does your organization have a pandemic virus plan or, better stated, an emergency operations and recovery plan?

Is your firm prepared to deal with high absentee rates, power outages, power spikes, internet outages, etc.?

Is your plan documented? Does it cover immediate response and recovery? Do your employees know what is expected of them and how to implement the plan?

We are a small analytical organization that provides daily forecasts to support the trading activities of our clients. System reliability and uninterrupted data flows and analysis are key to our survival.

Eight years ago, we experienced a major storm that was accompanied by a massive power spike caused by a lightning strike across the street from our office and falling trees that blocked local and regional roads, caused a regional power outage, and a partial loss of internet service that lasted for two weeks.

Fortunately, we had developed a documented emergency recovery plan that covers first response, continued operations during a disruption, and systems recovery.

As a result, our employees knew what was expected of them and when; who would stay on site in anticipation of the storm; sufficient food and supplies to support continued emergency on-site operations; where and how we would set up a temporary off-site operations center and how it would be equipped and manned; a customer communications program; a damage assessment program; and protocol for ordering, taking delivery of replacement equipment, and systems recovery.

All work seamlessly and our customers did not fully understand the magnitude of our distress until we had fully recovered normal operations.

Are you ready?

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SueW

COVID-19 cases continue to rise worldwide. Thank all who work under adverse conditions and uncertainty.

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woody, Myst

It is, what it is, and I pray that this does not go to biblical proportions. For those in developing countries, where there is very little medical infrastructure, govt funding, no contingency plans nor preparation with lots of rural communities over a vast areas is really worrying and will no doubt be hit the hardest. They earn a minimal livelyhood in a lifetime and don’t polute the inherited garden we take for granted in the polluted parts.

Bill & Melinda Gates are in the continent I speak of, who are doing, in my mind, what angels do and deserve better recognition via the media. (tangent that needs to be highlighted IMO)

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Myst, woody

OscarCP wrote:

If this was actually what happened, then it would also highlight the complexities of human interactions even at the highest science-based levels of decision-making and even while under seriously threatening and potentially dire circumstances.

And where else have we heard that scenario just recently (if you are listening…)

Edit: for content. Woody said:

if you feel so inspired, but leave the politics out of it, please!

Just because you don't know where you are going doesn't mean any road will get you there.

wavy wrote:

Definitely NOT A Peoples Hero but a hero of the people although tthat is likely to change because the spin is gone.

Peculiar to turn this in a kind of wordgame or what you call it in the america’s;
I was/am referring to the statements of mr Aiweiwei and some of his fellow exiles.
So a peoples hero he is;    His final poem written to us all:

https://youtu.be/Uv0qEGGJRQY

* _ ... _ *

This is a thread dedicated to thank those who are in the front lines of the defense against a medical emergency whose risks still are not fully understood, but can be major. Dr Li was such a man.

So here I thank him, as follows:

In Dr. Li’s poem he wrote in extremis, he worries about the next payment of his house mortgage. And about those patients he has been treating and still need him.

Well, by the infinite mercy of the God he believed in: Now all his debts are paid and all his work is done.

This man was one of the Just Men, and a hero to his people and to all mankind. He was faithful to his call and loyal to those who were in his care. We must honor his memory, those of us who can only hope to be, when the time comes, as heroic, as honorable, as faithful and as loyal as him.

The world now needs more like him. So I hope that among those who will be in the front lines of the implementation of medical care and public health measures, of those directly exposed to the danger of contagion by the very nature of their work, there will be more like him. As well as among common citizens that will, as we all must, help those in the front lines carry on their necessary duties unobstructed. And that they will fare better than him, so we will end up with more practical solutions, more lives saved by these measures, and less heroes to elegize.

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Myst, Kirsty, SueW

“by the infinite mercy of the God he believed in”.

It appears that the mercy was very finite indeed.

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Fred

Sarnak: “It appears that the mercy was very finite indeed.”

“The infinite mercy of the God he believed in”, was intended as a metaphor, not an statement of fact. But I preferred not to elaborate, then, as doing sot seemed besides the point.

One does not need to believe in a god, gods, or supernatural beings of any kind derived from traditional narratives to believe, as I do, that there is a justice and a mercy that reach both further and deeper than written laws and court judgements and originate in the mystery that is the human spirit. That mercy will, I hope, be reflected in the help and support those many who mourn the loss of Dr. Li will provide and, ultimately, see the unfortunate widow and her child right.

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SueW

wavy wrote:

R.I.P. this doctor is considered to be a peoples hero in China

Definitely NOT A Peoples Hero but a hero of the people although that is likely to change because the spin is gone.

Not a word game. The capitalized “Peoples Hero” vs the uncapitalized “hero of the people” was meant to indicate that the party certainly did not consider him a hero but the people do. Kinda what you said but I know a bit nuanced, I do tend towards the obtuse at times my apology. I intended to reinforce the fact that it was the “exiles” that were so declaring not the party, although they will likely feel obliged to do so sooner or later…

Just because you don't know where you are going doesn't mean any road will get you there.

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Fred, OscarCP

[Fred]

interestingly problematic

Without caring for those who care: is there any point left? Civilisation is just about caring. Nothing religious or political about that, anyway in Europe that is .

Take care, greetings Fred

* _ ... _ *

• This reply was modified 5 years, 3 months ago by Fred.

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Kirsty, OscarCP

I’m sealing this discussion off.

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